Michael Stickings asks if recent events in Iraq are “The end of the Iraqi government?“
He points to a Mercury News article that says…
Followers of the militant Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr took over state-run television Saturday to denounce the Iraqi government, label Sunnis “terrorists” and issue what appeared to many viewers as a call to arms…
And adds his own view and connects two dots I hadn’t thought about…
This may well be the beginning of the end for the Iraqi government as we know it. And it may well mean an escalation in sectarian violence beyond even what we have seen in recent days. Governments that lose the airwaves cannot govern, and, as DHinMI notes at Daily Kos, historical precedence is bleak: “Many will recall that the Rwandan genocide began when Hutu radicals used state radio to call for the massacre of Tutsi and any Hutu who didn’t support the massacre of the Tutsi.”
Clearly, the Bush administration has concerns on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s ability to control the growing violence.
Bush Aide’s Memo Doubts Iraqi Leader
WASHINGTON, Nov. 28 — A classified memorandum by President Bush’s national security adviser expressed serious doubts about whether Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki had the capacity to control the sectarian violence in Iraq and recommended that the United States take new steps to strengthen the Iraqi leader’s position.
The Nov. 8 memo was prepared for Mr. Bush and his top deputies by Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, and senior aides on the staff of the National Security Council after a trip by Mr. Hadley to Baghdad.
A very telling line from the memo raises a frightening question: Would American forces be used to remove al-Maliki from power?
“Do we and Prime Minister Maliki share the same vision for Iraq? If so, is he able to curb those who seek Shia hegemony or the reassertion of Sunni power? The answers to these questions are key in determining whether we have the right strategy in Iraq.”
Make no mistake, the memo raises many concerns that are valid. Is al-Maliki using his position to subjugate Sunni Iraqis while empowering the Shiites?
“Reports of nondelivery of services to Sunni areas, intervention by the prime minister’s office to stop military action against Shia targets and to encourage them against Sunni ones, removal of Iraq’s most effective commanders on a sectarian basis and efforts to ensure Shia majorities in all ministries — when combined with the escalation of Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) killings — all suggest a campaign to consolidate Shia power in Baghdad.”
The document also details some of the failings of the Baghdad security plan and has led to American forces being reallocated from the Anbar province to Baghdad.
The memo refers to “the current four-brigade gap in Baghdad,” a seeming acknowledgment that there is a substantial shortfall of troops in the Iraqi capital compared with the level needed to provide security there, in part because the Iraqi government has not dispatched all the forces it has promised.
The memo also suggests that Democratic plans to pressure the Iraqi government with a threat of American withdrawal would backfire, potentially sinking the al-Maliki government and causing more chaos.
“Pushing Maliki to take these steps without augmenting his capabilities could force him to failure — if the Parliament removes him from office with a majority vote or if action against the Mahdi militia (JAM) causes elements of the Iraqi Security Forces to fracture and leads to major Shia disturbances in southern Iraq,”
UPDATE: The Raleigh News and Observer reports that al-Sadr loyalists within the Iraqi Parliament and government agencies (including cabinet members) have boycotted the government due to a (now postponed) meeting between President Bush and Prime Minister al-Maliki.
36 al-Sadr loyalists boycott Iraq gov’t
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki arrived in Jordan for meetings Wednesday and Thursday with President Bush aimed at halting escalating sectarian violence and paving the way for a reduction of U.S. troops. Lawmakers and Cabinet ministers loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr promptly suspended participation in parliament and the government to protest the meeting.
The political bloc is a mainstay of support for al-Maliki.
The group feels that the meeting between Bush and al-Maliki violates the constitutional rights of Iraqis but doesn’t explain that claim.
Also added as an update, the Washington Post is reporting the meeting between President Bush and Prime Minister al-Maliki has been postponed to Thursday.
President Bush’s planned summit in Jordan with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was put off Wednesday following the public disclosure of U.S. concerns about the Iraqi leader’s ability to control the raging sectarian violence in his country.
As al-Maliki’s government is falling apart, one must ask: Will he have a government when he returns to Iraq?
These are scary times and I can only imagine that they are even more terrifying from Iraqi eyes.
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